Well most Canadians who follow politics across Canada, have witnessed a chaotic shit show ever since Kerry Lynn Findlay (KLF) won the leadership of the BC Conservative Party (CPBC) May 30/26.  She lurched her party much further to the right, provoked a mass exodus of MLAs to the nascent CenterBC Party, Resigned, provoked a leadership emergency, so in the middle of this, NDP premier David Eby called a provincial election while a municipal election is still in progress, to be held Saturday, October 21st. Conservatives, naturally see this as opportunistic but hard headed NDPers would say ‘’politics ain’t beanbag’’. The polls show the NDP ahead by roughly 4% but this could translate into nearly ⅔ of the seats. That’s also presuming the electorate doesn’t turn on Eby over the early election call. 

 

All of that is prologue or backcloth to our main center of gravity here, which is the politics of education. There are really 3 scenarios, an NDP majority, a CPBC majority and a minority government with the Green Party (GPBC) holding the balance of power.  What can we expect under each possibility? 

 

Under an NDP majority, we can generally expect more money for education than the CPBC would allocate. For many years, BC was shockingly second last in per pupil funding. Under John Hoegan and David Eby the funding is now around the average of the 10 provinces. On the plus side, that is substantial progress noted and the trajectory is good. The most recent numbers have Quebec spending $19000+ while the next 6 provinces are all $15-16 000. It would seem easy to go from 5th to 2nd for a few bucks. 

 

The real crisis in the classroom revolves around the inclusion of very difficult students in general education. The teachers, (BCTF) flagged this first and has tried to negotiate the number per class to lower levels. The NDP government has been a bit slow to realize the severity of the issue, and is resistant to change very much. They need to do more and do it faster. BCTF has a 4 year contract at 3% per year so there shouldn’t be labour issues for a few years. The government has added $634 million to K12 over 3 years, $167 million for teachers and support staff. $3.9 billion for capital. 

 

With a CPBC government things could be quite different. The party is a party of fiscal restraint and any party looking to cut expenditure will soon notice that its either slash healthcare and education or we are into the sofa cushions for small change. Anticipate less money but with the BCTF CA where are the cuts coming? 

 

This conservative party is not just fiscally right wing, its is a maple MAGA culture wars party, The system can expect textbook or software ‘’reviews’’ an attack on queer rights, anti SOGI action, and possibly a McCarthyite move against ‘’socialism’’ in the curriculum. When they say ‘’parents rights’’ they really mean right wing parents rights. Brace yourself if this crowd is in charge, 

 

What about a minority government and a GPBC balance of power?

Although few vote for minority governments, they happen anyway and the GPBC is the likely holder of the balance of power. They have a youthful but energetic new Gen Z leader in Emily Lowan. The party has been slowly shifting left to find its niche, from Liberals on bikes under Weaver, to NDPers who compost under Furstenau, and now ‘’left of NDP’’ under Lowan. The NDP could actually use a critique from the GPBC and at 11% and with 2 safe seats, the Greens aren’t going anywhere, in funding terms, Lowan is calling the NDP pikers who need to put up more dough. You can assume GPBC will push for more David Suzuki style envinonmental education. That looks good on them. 

 

There are other parties. Elenore Sturko has inherited the carcass of CenterBC and Dallas Brodie, a far far right, anti indigenous crackpot heads up a party calles OneBC and is unlikely to be reelected in her Vancouver riding.  

 

This election, notwithstanding all the chaos, remains critical even beyond BC, Knock on doors, put up a yard sign and make a financial contribution.